Math, Omicron, and Christmas Dinner

Here’s a quick holiday note about simple math, viral spread, and your family members who might be vulnerable to the Omicron variant, even if vaxxed and boosted:

City after city and country after country are getting walloped by Omicron, leaving them shellshocked and wondering what the hell just happened. At least in my opinion, here’s why: Part of it is human nature, part of it is viral-adaptation, and part of it is public education.

First, human nature: After two years of this pandemic, we have all adapted to the existence of Covid in our daily behaviors. Some are more stringent with mask-wearing, social distancing, and vaccine acceptance. Some are less so. But we now have a rhythm to our behaviors that guides our path through the covid-strewn world. Consciously or not, we react to the perceived threat around us. We understand community spread and the wave motion of contagion, as it has existed up to this point. That knowledge has allowed us all to begin approximating a life not utterly dominated by fear. We now know when to lower our guards a bit here and there. For example, I no longer wear a KN-95 mask when I go to the store, figuring that the place is airy and well ventilated, the cases in my community are low, I understand the dynamics of transmissibility, and I can get milk and eggs in under ten minutes. So, yeah, when I go shopping, I wear my more comfortable surgical mask instead.

Through experience, I’ve discovered a liveable protocol and have avoided the bug so far. I presume it’s the same for you.

The problem, however, is that two of those variables — the amount of community spread and the dynamics of transmissibility have shifted radically. Now the math.

Omicron is wildly more contagious than the already very contagious Delta variant. According to Dr. Fauci and the other scientists running point on this battle, it is DOUBLING in infected hosts every two to three days. Delta, the most previously transmissible variant, was nowhere near that level. They are different by orders of magnitude. We are now at a level of contagion that fits all the tropes for Hollywood movie graphics departments. You know the scenes. The principals are all standing in the CDC war room, and the eccentric lead scientist, probably played by Jeff Goldblum, punches some parameters into the computer, then we see the map of the world turn red over a handful of days in expanding circles.

Run the numbers for any town or country: Percentages are of the total population.

Day One: 1% infected with Omicron.

Day Three: 2%

Day Five: 4%

Day Seven: 8%

Day Nine: 16%

Day Eleven: 32%

Day Thirteen: 64%

Day Fifteen: Everyone.

(Well, everyone who is not hyper-vigilant about their health and safety as this tsunami passes.)

Near as I can tell, the sociological modifications we’ve all adopted to feel safe-ish have been defeated by the speed and virality of Omicron. We are now, by my estimates, somewhere in the first week of that graph. We see that, yeah, cases are going up, but it’s not all that scary after living with exposure percentage like this for a few years now: 2%, 4% whatever. Been there, done that. Pass the gravy.

But Omicron IS different. That 4% doesn’t edge up to 6% over a week, it becomes 32% in seven days, 64% in nine days, and everyone in eleven days.

We’re living like this is Delta, but it is not Delta. Omicron is different. Very different.

This explosive growth JUST HAPPENED in NYC.

Over the past two years, I’ve known a smattering of friends who got sick — but nothing like this. Thankfully, all my people in the Boroughs suffering now are vaxxed, boosted, and doing well. But many of them have family members who are immunocompromised. Honestly, thank GOD they got sick two weeks BEFORE Christmas. At least now they’ll know enough to stay home and protect grandma.

The rest of us are in a different boat. We’re walking into the holiday season, ready for a bit of joy, when the results could be just devastating.

Also, if you pull the perceptual lens out a bit from family and loved ones, consider what this could do to the unvaccinated. It is terrifying. I’m no epidemiologist, but if a ubiquitously spread virus has a 1% mortality rate in an unvaccinated population — and we have 100 million unvaccinated people in the United States — then a million people could die. . . this month.

Sobering, right?

No matter how you slice it, we’ve got an enormous problem on our hands. It is caused partially by our adaptations, thus far, to a pandemic that morphs and changes more quickly than we do. The hard sciences, so far, are keeping pace with the viral mutations — but the bug has discovered a way to subvert our sociological response. We are still living in a time when the waves break slowly and predictably — but the virus is now a tsunami.

The math of a doubling rate at 2 to 3 days does not lie.

This virus will be plenary in one week, maybe two, just in time for the holidays.

The public education failure is obvious and unavoidable. It’s evident that we still have 100,000,000 Americans proudly unvaccinated. I don’t know what the hell to do about that. Also, there really is no meaningful way to gear up the public health warning system quickly enough to beat the speed of Omicron.

Like it or not, we are on our own this holiday season. Someone at your Christmas dinner will, almost with certainty, carry the virus. Then you all will. So, make good choices, particularly if you have loved ones — as I do — who are immunocompromised.

Also, if you want a measure of how dire this situation is in a political vein, recognize that TODAY Donald Trump finally came out unambiguously in favor of vaccines. In an interview with Candice Owens, he was clear and firm: Vaccines work. Get one.

I’m glad he finally said it — but understand why. He didn’t have a sudden change of heart on the value of human life. Rather, he looked forward and thought, “Oh, shit. There’s no way I win this thing if one million more of my voters are pushing up daisies in November 2024.”

He’s taking Omicron seriously. You should, too.

There is, however, an upside to the Omicron wave being so ubiquitous. IF you survive — and it is entirely survivable with vaccines, treatment options, masks, and social distancing — then the world thereafter will be that much safer. Once Omicron sweeps through the population, it will leave behind an ocean of tears — but also greater resistance to the next surge. We will be, very likely, much closer to the herd immunity — or herd resistance — that will ultimately lift us out of this mess.

The hard work is making sure we get there with all the people we love still around the campfire.

So, yeah, if you want my bar-napkin, thumb-nail analysis of the situation, there it is. My strong suggestion is to cancel the Christmas party if someone you love is in poor health or immunocompromised. Shoulder one more pandemic burden in the safety of your homes. Survive this wave with all your loved ones protected, and we’ll be able to start 2022 surrounded with joy, not in mourning.

Love to you all, stay safe, and Happy Holidays — even if that happiness is somewhat muted by the storm all around.